Latin America Economic Outlook
This year, GDP growth will be the weakest since 2020’s pandemic-induced contraction. U.S. trade protectionism, softer economic momentum in key trade partner China and political uncertainty in some countries will cap activity. In contrast, bumper harvests in Brazil and Uruguay plus a resurgent Argentinian economy will be regional tailwinds.
Latin America Inflation
Regional inflation eased for the thirteenth straight month in May, largely thanks to the ongoing disinflationary process in Argentina plus subdued global oil prices. In 2025 as a whole, inflation will be below 2024’s level thanks to lower price pressures in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Currency and commodity price volatility is the key risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,205 | 8,292 | 9,357 | 10,450 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.6 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 6.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.4 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 68.9 | 62.8 | 61.0 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.6 | 18.2 | 24.6 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 876 | 913 | 854 | 888 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.2 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,012 | 1,273 | 1,474 | 1,452 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.84 | 9.53 | 18.91 | 20.14 | 12.10 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 908 | 1,224 | 1,483 | 1,395 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 48.1 | 42.7 | 37.8 | 35.0 | - |